Wednesday, February 25, 2009

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Last week Pakistan admitted the attacks were partly planned on its soil. More than 170 people died when 10 men launched attacks in several parts of India's financial capital in November. Meanwhile, India's Home Minister P Chidambaram told the BBC the country was "better prepared" against terrorist attacks such as the ones in Mumbai.
'Conspiracy'
"We are seriously considering sending an FIA (Federal Investigation Agency) team to India to share information on the Mumbai tragedy with the investigators there," Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani told reporters in the eastern city of Lahore. Shortly after the attacks, the Pakistani government had to reverse a decision to send the head of its intelligence agency - the ISI - to India, reportedly due to pressure from the army.
Last week, the interior ministry said that "a part of the conspiracy" to attack Mumbai was hatched in Pakistan's southern port city of Karachi.
The conspiracy was masterminded by members of the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba militant, it said.
According to the ministry, a probe by the FIA had found that at least nine suspected attackers had sailed from Karachi to Mumbai in three boats in November.
Prior to this, they had stayed at two houses in Karachi, and had received training on the Karachi beach. The ministry said the findings were of a preliminary nature, and needed additional information for successful prosecutions. It said it had sought answers to 30 questions posed by the Indian authorities. Pakistani officials say they have indicted eight people on the basis of the FIA's findings, six of whom have already been arrested. But legal experts in Pakistan say the prosecution of these people would not be possible in the absence of Ajmal Kasab, the lone surviving Mumbai attacker, who is being held in India. Pakistan's new deputy attorney-general, Sardar Ghazi, told media on Wednesday that Pakistan was considering making a request to India to hand over Kasab to Pakistan. India has not commented on these developments. India has in the past accused the ISI of promoting militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba as a tool to destabilise Kashmir. Relations between India and Pakistan have worsened considerably since the November attacks.
The results, reported in the MIT International Review, are being greeted with polite but skeptical interest among people involved in the hunt for bin Laden, the al-Qaeda leader behind 9/11. Bin Laden's whereabouts are considered "one of the most important political questions of our time," the study notes.
"I've never really believed the sitting-in-a-cave theory. That's the last place you would want to be bottled up," Gillespie says. The study's real value, he says, is in combining satellite records of geographic locations, patterns of nighttime electricity use and population-detection methods to produce a technique for locating fugitives.
Essentially, the study generates hiding-place location probabilities. It starts with "distance decay theory," which holds that the odds are greater that the person will be found close to where he or she was last seen.
Then the researchers add the "island biographic theory," which maintains that locales with more resources — palm trees for tropical birds and electricity for wealthy fugitives — are likelier to draw creatures of interest. "Island biographic theory suggests bin Laden would end up in the biggest and least isolated city of the region," Gillespie says, one among about 26 towns within a 20-mile distance of Tora Bora.
"To really improve the model, you would need to include intelligence data from 2001 to 2006," Gillespie says. "It has been eight years. Honestly, I think it is time to be more open. This is a very important issue for the public."
The study also makes assumptions that bin Laden might need:
• Medical treatment, requiring electricity in an urban setting.
• Security combining few bodyguards and isolation that requires a walled compound.
• Tree cover to shield outdoor activities from aircraft.
"Of course, it all depends on the accuracy of the information on most recent whereabouts," Gillespie says. "I assume that the military has more recent information that would change the hiding place probabilities."
The researchers contacted the FBI with their findings, and USA TODAY asked Defense Department officials for reaction, before publication of the study.
"The combination of physical terrain, socio-cultural gravitational factors and the physical characteristic of structures are all important factors in developing an area limitation for terror suspects," say John Goolgasian of the federal National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency in Bethesda, Md. His spy satellite agency "looks forward to reviewing the article once it is published."
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